Iran’s oil exports plummeted by nearly 70% in the first 10 days of October due to concerns over potential Israeli retaliation following Iran’s missile attacks. The state-owned National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) pulled back its tankers from Kharg Island, a crucial export hub, reducing daily loadings to just 600,000 barrels—down significantly from the recent average of 1.5 million barrels per day.
However, activity at Kharg Island has gradually resumed since mid-October, with export volumes now estimated at 800,000 barrels per day. Despite the slow recovery, analysts from Vortexa reported that only two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) were loaded between 1 and 10 October, much lower than the usual daily average observed in 2024. Satellite imagery confirms the presence of two VLCCs and a third-party aframax tanker at the terminal last week.
Amid missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, rumors circulated about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Despite Iran’s historical threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, analysts believe this is unlikely due to the country’s reliance on China for over 95% of its oil exports, which would face severe disruption if such actions were taken.
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